Beyond the Bell

When GDP growth slows and extreme volatility plagues the market, we are often confronted with a familiar question…are we headed for a recession or are we already in one? The usual definition of a recession may make it seem clear-cut: two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. However, to the “recession referees” of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, the real definition is a little more nuanced.

In 2009, Jon Stewart interviewed Jim Cramer, the famous CNBC financial news commentator (first portion of the interview is here). When Stewart pressed him on his contradictory and often erratic antics Cramer said, “Look, we’ve got 17 hours of live TV a day to do.” Just think about that for a moment. 17 hours of live TV to fill! In between gold and crypto commercials, they have a 17-hour void to fill that bridges the gap between news, entertainment, and some actual financial analysis.

The start to this year has been anything but smooth for the stock and bond markets. With interest rates on the rise and inflation running amok, some investors have questioned where the bubbles are located. Crypto and profitless tech companies have already had their bubbles respectively pop. One area some investors have questioned is real estate. Are we in fact in a major real estate bubble?

How will I behave in combat? This a question I asked myself countless times before my first deployment to Afghanistan. As a young officer who performed well in training, I thought I had the foundation to do well, but there really isn’t a substitute for the real thing. Some things must be experienced before they are truly understood. A tough training scenario can recreate the sounds and chaos of combat, but it can’t recreate the emotions. No matter how stressful the training event, it’s still just that, a training event. There may be notional casualties, but actual Americans aren’t bleeding