Market Outlook

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Market Outlook Spring 2025

In our outlook for 2025, we wrote about the following factors that we thought would impact investment returns this year: Artificial Intelligence Investments and Commercialization of AI Applications, Labor Market Conditions, Inflation, and Fiscal and Monetary Policy. We provide our latest thoughts on each of these topics in this update, after a quarter characterized by a lot of market-moving news and a corresponding increase in stock market volatility.

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Tariffs in America: A Look Back at Their Impact on the Economy

Over the last couple of months, the markets and investors have been concerned about numerous policy decisions that a Trump administration would impose. One of these concerns that continues to be front and center are tariffs. What exactly are tariffs? Simply put, these are taxes imposed by one country on the goods or services imported from another. Tariffs can be used to influence another country, raise money or to protect a competitive advantage.

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Market Outlook Winter 2025

Our outlook for 2025 is based on the following factors that we believe are most likely to impact investment returns: Artificial Intelligence Investments and Commercialization of AI Applications, Labor Market Conditions, Inflation, and Fiscal and Monetary Policy.

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Predicting the Unpredictable: Market Insights for Long-Term Investors 

When reflecting on the year just past, I thought I would go back and check on the market predictions from the end of 2023. Where did the smart people think we would end up at the end of 2024 and what were the boldest predictions that did not come true? One phenomenon I have noticed over the many years I have done this is that most short-term predictions are wrong. And there is usually no consequence for getting the predictions wrong no matter how bold—no jobs are lost and, in fact, the predictions that are wrong are mostly forgotten. However, the upside to making a bold prediction and being right is immense.

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Market Outlook Fall 2024

The outcome of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive inflation-fighting campaign launched in 2022 is coming into sharper view. Inflation has declined from a peak of over 9% in mid-2022 to 2.5%, unemployment has increased by just a small percentage and remains near the low end of its range over the last 50 years, and theU.S. economy has continued to grow. When the Fed began its inflation fight back in 2022, few economists thought such an outcome was possible, but restoration of inflation back to about 2%, low unemployment and continued good economic growth is now very much the consensus forecast.

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Market Outlook Summer 2024

In our 2024 outlook that we distributed in January, we wrote about what we thought would be the most important factors hat would impact investments in 2024, including: (1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards theFed’s 2% target?(2) Will there be a recession?At the halfway point of 2024, we update our inflation and economic outlook based on new information and assumptions.

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Market Outlook Spring 2024

In our Winter 2024 outlook, we wrote about what we thought would be the most important factors that would impact investments in 2024, including:
(1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards the
Fed’s 2% target?
(2) Will there be a recession?
In January, a large majority of investors believed that the Fed would successfully bring inflation down from a very high level to near its 2% target by the end of 2024 while avoiding a recession. In this update, we analyze recent inflation and economic data and provide our opinions as to how it changes the outlook.

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Market Outlook Winter 2024

As we start 2024, we make the following observations about what we believe are the most important uncertainties that will impact investments in 2024. (1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards the Fed’s 2% target? (2) Will there be a recession? (3) Will artificial intelligence adequately deliver on its promise in 2024?Notably, investors’ opinion on the first question is resoundingly “yes.” Investors’ opinion on the second question has shifted during the last several months and there is now a strong consensus opinion that the answer is “no.” Based on the performance of technology stocks in 2023 and high relative valuations, it seems clear that investors expect a lot from artificial intelligence in 2024. Read along as we explore these questions in more detail.

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Market Outlook Fall 2023

As we turn the calendar to the closing months of 2023, we look back and consider how the year has unfolded compared to expectations at the beginning of the year. A year ago, the consensus opinion was that economic conditions would be poor in the first half of the year, likely including a recession, and the economy would recover in the second part of the year. Most investors expected a weak first half for stocks, with a rebound later in 2023. Contrary to the consensus belief, the economy proved far more resilient than expected through September, driving equity returns far above expectations in the first half of 2023 as investors’ calls for a 2023 recession went silent by mid-summer.

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