In our 2024 outlook that we distributed in January, we wrote about what we thought would be the most important factors hat would impact investments in 2024, including: (1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards theFed’s 2% target?(2) Will there be a recession?At the halfway point of 2024, we update our inflation and economic outlook based on new information and assumptions.
In our Winter 2024 outlook, we wrote about what we thought would be the most important factors that would impact investments in 2024, including:
(1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards the
Fed’s 2% target?
(2) Will there be a recession?
In January, a large majority of investors believed that the Fed would successfully bring inflation down from a very high level to near its 2% target by the end of 2024 while avoiding a recession. In this update, we analyze recent inflation and economic data and provide our opinions as to how it changes the outlook.
As we start 2024, we make the following observations about what we believe are the most important uncertainties that will impact investments in 2024. (1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards the Fed’s 2% target? (2) Will there be a recession? (3) Will artificial intelligence adequately deliver on its promise in 2024?Notably, investors’ opinion on the first question is resoundingly “yes.” Investors’ opinion on the second question has shifted during the last several months and there is now a strong consensus opinion that the answer is “no.” Based on the performance of technology stocks in 2023 and high relative valuations, it seems clear that investors expect a lot from artificial intelligence in 2024. Read along as we explore these questions in more detail.
As we turn the calendar to the closing months of 2023, we look back and consider how the year has unfolded compared to expectations at the beginning of the year. A year ago, the consensus opinion was that economic conditions would be poor in the first half of the year, likely including a recession, and the economy would recover in the second part of the year. Most investors expected a weak first half for stocks, with a rebound later in 2023. Contrary to the consensus belief, the economy proved far more resilient than expected through September, driving equity returns far above expectations in the first half of 2023 as investors’ calls for a 2023 recession went silent by mid-summer.
The phrase “if it is not one thing, it is another” implies that when dealing with financial markets and the economy, there is often a continuous cycle of challenges or issues. It suggests that as one problem is addressed, another one arises. This statement reflects the dynamic and ever-changing nature of financial markets and the economy.
This never gets easier. In the writing of our Quarterly Outlook, barely a day goes by without a twist or turn with the economy, asset classes, sectors, or portfolio holdings. There is no ‘skipping school’ in our world, but we understand this challenge, as this is our chosen profession. As ‘Spring Break’ has been happening the past few weeks, around here, it is ‘nose to the grindstone’ and prepare for every twist and turn.
At the start of every calendar year, we see the major financial institutions providing their ‘outlook’ for the markets. Usually, the outlooks are hedged by not being too divergent from consensus, but nonetheless, they all must predict something, knowing that if their thesis comes true, they can lay claim to have made the right call.
Yet another Market Outlook with a thousand moving parts. Patience is paramount now as we wait for each part to find its spot in this machine we call an economy. Right now, inflation is the problem, and interest
rates are the wrench of choice. The challenge is how hard will the wrench have to be torqued to get the desired results? Will the lug nut break, requiring a modified approach? Perhaps. In the end, we believe patience will be rewarded, and the laws of economic theory will eventually play out.
Double, double whammy. After two years of endless concern from a once-a-lifetime pandemic (let’s hope), and the clouds just starting to part, barely, we get hit with an unruly market bent on testing our already fragile mindsets; Double Whammy #1.
If this isn’t enough, let’s toss in inflation exhibiting the endurance of a marathon runner, coupled with rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs to businesses and consumers with higher rates on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, home equity and improvement loans, and personal loans of all types. When you can’t buy a new home, or a car, because of limited supply, now you can’t afford them from a budget perspective. Double Whammy #2.
A bull in a china shop.
Thinking about the present state of the economy, the bull in a china shop metaphor pretty much sums up how markets, central banks, and investors are looking to the future—delicate steps.
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