The phrase “if it is not one thing, it is another” implies that when dealing with financial markets and the economy, there is often a continuous cycle of challenges or issues. It suggests that as one problem is addressed, another one arises. This statement reflects the dynamic and ever-changing nature of financial markets and the economy.
This never gets easier. In the writing of our Quarterly Outlook, barely a day goes by without a twist or turn with the economy, asset classes, sectors, or portfolio holdings. There is no ‘skipping school’ in our world, but we understand this challenge, as this is our chosen profession. As ‘Spring Break’ has been happening the past few weeks, around here, it is ‘nose to the grindstone’ and prepare for every twist and turn.
At the start of every calendar year, we see the major financial institutions providing their ‘outlook’ for the markets. Usually, the outlooks are hedged by not being too divergent from consensus, but nonetheless, they all must predict something, knowing that if their thesis comes true, they can lay claim to have made the right call.
Yet another Market Outlook with a thousand moving parts. Patience is paramount now as we wait for each part to find its spot in this machine we call an economy. Right now, inflation is the problem, and interest
rates are the wrench of choice. The challenge is how hard will the wrench have to be torqued to get the desired results? Will the lug nut break, requiring a modified approach? Perhaps. In the end, we believe patience will be rewarded, and the laws of economic theory will eventually play out.
Double, double whammy. After two years of endless concern from a once-a-lifetime pandemic (let’s hope), and the clouds just starting to part, barely, we get hit with an unruly market bent on testing our already fragile mindsets; Double Whammy #1.
If this isn’t enough, let’s toss in inflation exhibiting the endurance of a marathon runner, coupled with rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs to businesses and consumers with higher rates on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, home equity and improvement loans, and personal loans of all types. When you can’t buy a new home, or a car, because of limited supply, now you can’t afford them from a budget perspective. Double Whammy #2.
A bull in a china shop.
Thinking about the present state of the economy, the bull in a china shop metaphor pretty much sums up how markets, central banks, and investors are looking to the future—delicate steps.
On our minds for early 2022 are several things – the pandemic, interest rates, and inflation. These will all be critical, near-term influences on the markets. We will address each in this Outlook.
When we consider the past 20 months, not only the people of the world, but also the markets, have displayed considerable fortitude.
Last quarter we made thematic references to “Back to the Future,” thinking perhaps the world was peeking around the corner at a return to some type of normalcy. As we start the second half of 2021, if our time traveler last quarter was dropped from the future into the Eastern United States today, odds are this traveler might not have a clue a pandemic just ravished the world.
Spring has sprung—weather-wise, spirit-wise, and market-wise. After a more than year-long pandemic, the markets are wanting to get Back to the Future.
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