While known risks like recessions are widely discussed, the most consequential risks may be those not currently on our radar. Dylan Potter, Vice President and Wealth Manager at Howe & Rusling, shares a story from his time as a U.S. Army Ranger detailing how the most perilous risks often go unnoticed and how this applies to your portfolio.
In ancient Rome, the generals who returned from victorious military campaigns were celebrated with grand parades, known as triumphs. After arriving home, the Roman general would also be given a slave, known as an Auriga, by the Roman Senate. Each Auriga was charged with a simple task: as the victory parade progressed through the streets of Rome, every so often, whisper in the general’s ear, “Memento Homo.”
On any given day, you might patrol with 15-20 American soldiers from your outpost through the grape fields doing your best not to trigger a booby trap that could blow off one of your legs. After making your way through the orchards, you might have ended up in a maze-like village composed of interconnected mud-walled compounds. The “streets” (although they were more like paths), might contain some mix of garbage, human waste, dead animals, or worse. It wasn’t uncommon to see children beating a stray dog (or each other) with rocks or sticks. From there, you might search a few
Investor Jim O’Shaughnessy said that “human nature is the last sustainable edge” due to its remarkable consistency over thousands of years. We may no longer be trading tulips in Amsterdam or speculating on the ticker tapes in bucket shops, but from a behavioral and emotional standpoint, we do not act differently than our forefathers.
Admiral James Stockdale was the highest-ranking American taken prisoner during the Vietnam War after his A-4 Skyhawk fighter was shot down over North Vietnam. Stockdale ejected, breaking a bone in his back. Upon landing in a remote village, he badly dislocated his knee, which subsequently went untreated. Shortly thereafter, he was captured by North Vietnamese forces.
With another volatile week nearly behind us, I think it’s worth revisiting some words I penned at the beginning of this year about my time in the US Army’s Ranger School.
If you are using a debit card, you’re spending money and not getting anything back in return. It’s like paying with a check. When you use a credit card though, every time you pay for shopping online, eating at a restaurant, groceries, or other day-to-day expenses, you’re likely earning valuable points and miles that can be used in a variety of ways!
When GDP growth slows and extreme volatility plagues the market, we are often confronted with a familiar question…are we headed for a recession or are we already in one? The usual definition of a recession may make it seem clear-cut: two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. However, to the “recession referees” of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, the real definition is a little more nuanced.
In 2009, Jon Stewart interviewed Jim Cramer, the famous CNBC financial news commentator (first portion of the interview is here). When Stewart pressed him on his contradictory and often erratic antics Cramer said, “Look, we’ve got 17 hours of live TV a day to do.” Just think about that for a moment. 17 hours of live TV to fill! In between gold and crypto commercials, they have a 17-hour void to fill that bridges the gap between news, entertainment, and some actual financial analysis.
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