Craig Cairns

When reflecting on the year just past, I thought I would go back and check on the market predictions from the end of 2023. Where did the smart people think we would end up at the end of 2024 and what were the boldest predictions that did not come true? One phenomenon I have noticed over the many years I have done this is that most short-term predictions are wrong. And there is usually no consequence for getting the predictions wrong no matter how bold—no jobs are lost and, in fact, the predictions that are wrong are mostly forgotten. However, the upside to making a bold prediction and being right is immense.