Michael Carrico

person reading a newspaper in bed with navy headboard and white sheets

Attention-Grabbing Headlines: Unemployment, the Sahm Rule, and the Yen

Any time the market makes big moves, specifically big negative moves, people are going to try to find the “why” behind the price action. It’s human nature. We love to find patterns and meaning. As I have said before, it is a worthwhile practice to understand the reason for market moves because it can demystify them and make them more bearable. However, it can also be a source of anxiety to be steeped in headlines which are designed to manipulate emotions. There has been no shortage of headlines in the last two weeks. Last week we had the Federal Reserve policy meeting, and they held rates steady while opening the door for near-term rate cuts without outright promising them. That same day, the Bank of Japan surprised markets with a rate hike and the yen began to rally relative to the U.S. dollar. Technology companies with an AI angle have been pillars of U.S. stock market performance since early last year and we received some disappointment in earnings releases from a handful of those companies which poured some cold water on AI enthusiasm. We have seen headlines of escalating tensions in the Middle East. There is news of a delayed launch on a new chip from Nvidia. There was a weak employment report on Friday. News came out over the weekend that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had sold a sizeable portion of its stake in Apple and raised cash to a record high. When the Oracle of Omaha makes moves, investors take notice. Amid the volatility on Monday there were headlines about recession risk, emergency Fed rate cuts, the yield curve, and the Sahm Rule. In short, it’s been noisy, and investors could pick a topic to worry about. We can’t cover all these topics, but let’s examine two of the more complicated ones, the Sahm Rule and the yen carry trade, and try to put them in context.

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Coming Up From Behind: What’s the Story With Small-Cap Stocks?

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes tend to take up most of the oxygen in the room when talking about the stock market and that can leave other stories untold. So today, let’s peel back the onion and see what’s going on elsewhere in the stock market, ask why that might be happening, and whether that means anything going forward.

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Red Raspberries

Sowing Season

I write these articles once a month and my goal is to keep my readers informed. Those readers are, for the most part, clients, colleagues, and friends. That information is typically about the financial markets, about trends, about how I’m approaching a given topic, and about the big picture of finances. There is often a running theme of examining a claim or ill-defined story driven by headlines or sound bites and digging deeper. The market is an inherently noisy thing. There is always something new to grab our attention, always someone making a claim that this is the thing we really must heed. Really! It is worthwhile to examine those stories and claims and see what we can learn, but it’s also easy to get lost in the noise and become distracted from the places our attention really belongs.

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Hot Air Balloon half inflated on the ground

What the Heck is Stagflation?

There has been some talk of stagflation this year and it finally became enough for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to comment on it. It seems to me that a lot of financial jargon gets tossed about without consideration for the fact that most people didn’t go to school for economics or get a job in finance. So, since it’s in the zeitgeist, maybe it’s time to define some terms and get to the bottom of a couple of questions. What is stagflation? Is it occurring in the U.S. right now?

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Why is the Market Falling?

Any time the stock market falls for several days in a row, investors are bound to wonder what’s causing the volatility, even if they aren’t necessarily worried about it. I have not had many clients, friends, or family members ask me about the recent losses in the stock market yet, which I take to mean that most people aren’t that concerned. However, if the trend continues, it’s only a matter of time before I will be talking about the markets at dinner parties. Our readers and clients know that we think and invest long-term, but I always tell my clients that I want them to know why we’re doing what we’re doing. An informed investor is a more confident investor. With that in mind, let’s examine the recent price action in the markets, discuss what might be causing the reaction, and try to understand what the future may hold.

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Investors, Speculators, and Irrational Markets: Why We Focus on the Long-Term

Among my friends in the industry, we tend to challenge one another’s thinking and ask interesting questions just for fun. Well, I call it fun, though our significant others may beg to differ when it comes up at dinner parties. Lately there have been several discussions about whether current prices are justified by underlying fundamentals and one friend even suggested he may use some “fun money” to short NVDA. This inevitably led my other friend to a quote he has revisited often as of late…

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How Are the Magnificent 7 Faring Through Earnings Season?

The S&P 500 closed last week down 0.42% ending a five-week winning streak and pulling back from a string of record-breaking highs. The dour mood continued into the beginning of this week and the S&P 500 only barely squeaked out a positive return in the last few minutes of trading on Wednesday leading up to the Nvidia earnings release only to turn on a dime and power back on Thursday. There are explanations for this activity which I’ll explore below. However, the bottom line is that volatility is back in the markets, and we are seeing that in the reactions to earnings announcements this quarter. As of Wednesday night, the companies dubbed the Magnificent 7 have all reported earnings and they seem as good an example as any to explore how changing expectations are impacting stock prices.

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Should Investors Worry About the U.S. Presidential Election?

Investing in an Election Year: Should Investors Worry About the U.S. Presidential Election?

Should Investors Worry About the U.S. Presidential Election? Happy New Year, everyone! I know we’re already nearly a month into 2024, but this is my first article to our clients in the new year and I just took down my Christmas tree embarrassingly late in January, so it still feels appropriate. At the beginning of every year, the financial media is awash in market forecasts. It should come as no surprise that I am not one for market predictions, but it is valuable to consider the developments so far in 2024, understand the market environment we find ourselves in today, and think about the challenges and opportunities the coming year may have in store. One topic I expect to come up in conversation this year is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Throughout my career, every presidential election cycle has brought fresh anxiety for investors and questions about what a given election outcome might mean for the markets. So, we’ll consider that question today and hopefully avoid some apprehension later.

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The Important Things: tuning out the financial noise to focus on what really matters

As the end of the year rapidly approaches and we all spend time with our friends, family, and loved ones, it feels as though time is accelerating and 2023 will be in the past before we know it. Reflecting on the topics of blog articles this year, I wrote about legislation a few times including changes to Roth rules, debt ceiling battles, and banking regulation interventions. Macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and market reactions to both were also common topics. Perhaps the most common subject was the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and it was so frequent that we need not count. There was another Federal Reserve meeting this week and, while the Summary of Economic Projections was a point of some interest for the markets, reflecting on such a strange year for economics and the markets got me thinking of the bigger picture. Perhaps it’s the season, but it feels like a good time to take a step back and reflect not on the noise of the financial press and the minutiae of the financial markets, but on the reasons we all bother to get up in the morning, go to work, do the hard things, and invest for the future.

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