Michael Carrico, Author at Howe & Rusling

Spam, Scams, and… AI?

Michael Carrico September 29, 2023

I don’t know about you, dear reader, but lately it seems the volume of spam I have been receiving has ballooned wildly. Spam certainly was not born with the advent of the internet and has been a reality of the connected world even before most households had an AOL installation disc arrive in the mail. Remember chain letters? However, just this year I have noticed more and more phishing emails are getting through the spam blocker on both personal and professional inboxes.

Women reading a newspaper with color collage elements over the photo

Let’s Talk About Headlines: Jackson Hole, China, U.S. Banks, and Nvidia

Michael Carrico August 25, 2023

With earnings season winding down and this week’s relatively light economic calendar, the talk of the week has been around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole which is underway as of the publishing of this article. One of these days, speeches by Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and monetary policy decisions may once again be humdrum affairs which don’t compel regular newsletter updates, but that time has not yet come.

Dove and Hawk with fed building and chart of interest rate increases

Hawks and Doves: A Tale of Two Birds

Michael Carrico July 31, 2023

Is it the best of times or the worst of times in the economy? It seems to depend on what data you review. On the negative side of the scale, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index is deeply negative, and the US Treasury yield curve is deeply inverted. We have not seen such stark indicators without a resulting recession in the last 50 years. On the other side of the scale, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are up double digits year-to-date while the unemployment rate is still historically low and inflation, as measured by the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), is falling and has been for a year since peaking in June 2022. In fact, due to falling inflation, the year-over-year measure of US real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings is positive after two years in the negative. Is it possible that the negative indicators are wrong this time?

Let’s Talk About AI

Michael Carrico June 26, 2023

So just what is going on with new developments in AI and how should we be thinking about it? This is a sprawling subject, and I am not an expert in artificial intelligence. My apologies in advance to any AI engineers who disagree with my understanding of the subject. By no means do I expect to cover everything in this newsletter, but today I would like to discuss what AI is, what the new developments are, and give some perspective on how investors might think about AI. Let’s dig in.

Collage of congress building split with money coming out and hitting a ceiling

Let’s Talk About the Debt Ceiling

Michael Carrico May 26, 2023

What exactly is going on with the US debt ceiling and what does it mean for investors?

Saving for a Child… Which Account Type is Right for You?

Michael Carrico April 25, 2023

So, you have decided to help your child or grandchild start saving and investing. That’s fantastic! It’s the first step on their road to financial success. But now you must decide what type of account to use, and you are confronted with a tangled mess of options.

Does Diversification Still Matter?

Michael Carrico April 14, 2023

“Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead?!” I have seen some variant of this as an article title every few months for years. It’s a click-bait title and it is intriguing. The argument usually made in these articles is that investors can no longer rely on a diversified portfolio built primarily of traditional investment assets such as stocks and bonds to support retirement goals. I respectfully disagree with that assessment and today I’ll tell you why.

The State of Banking: How Concerned Should We Be?

Michael Carrico March 15, 2023

Three banks have made headlines in recent days, Silvergate Bank and its holding company Silvergate Capital Corp (NYSE: SI), Signature Bank (Nasdaq: SBNY), and most notably Silicon Valley Bank and its holding company SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). Silvergate Bank is a major bank of the cryptocurrency community and announced on March 8, 2023 that it would be winding down operations with plans to liquidate voluntarily.[1] On Friday, March 10, 2023 California banking regulators announced that the FDIC would take over the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank holding company SVB Financial Group.[2] On Sunday night, March 12, New York banking regulators announced that Signature Bank would be placed into receivership of the FDIC.[3]

Diving In Again: Roth 2.0

Michael Carrico February 17, 2023

It seems the only things discussed these days in financial publications are interest rates, inflation, and labor markets. It makes sense. The disconnect between the stories the Fed officials are telling and the one the market seems to be sketching makes for a mesmerizing experience akin to staring into a campfire. It is hard to look away. One of these parties will have to be wrong, but which one?

On Predictions… and Being Wrong

Michael Carrico January 8, 2023

Happy New Year! The end of the year is all about reflection and the beginning of the year is all about looking forward. With that spirit in mind, today is a good day to think about looking ahead and what that means in finance.

Michael Carrico

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Spam, Scams, and… AI?

Let’s Talk About Headlines: Jackson Hole, China, U.S. Banks, and Nvidia

Hawks and Doves: A Tale of Two Birds

Let’s Talk About AI

Let’s Talk About the Debt Ceiling

Saving for a Child… Which Account Type is Right for You?

Does Diversification Still Matter?

The State of Banking: How Concerned Should We Be?

Diving In Again: Roth 2.0

On Predictions… and Being Wrong

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