Let’s start with the last 24 hours. Open your phone, and it’s a firehose of noise. Markets are up, markets are down. Someone tweeted something outrageous. A new gadget promises to change your life. An outrageous or terrible act was caught on video. We’re wired to react to this stuff—it’s urgent, it’s shiny, it’s right in front of us. Our brains are built to prioritize what’s immediate; it’s a survival mechanism from when “immediate” meant a saber tooth tiger in the bushes, not a notification ping. But here’s the catch: the last 24 hours are mostly meaningless. They’re a blip, a flicker in the grand scheme. The stock market’s daily gyrations? They’re like waves on the ocean—noisy, but the tide’s what matters. And the tide is set by forces that unfold over decades, centuries, even millennia.
Now, let’s talk about the last 6,000 years. It’s the story of how humans went from scratching out a living in small tribes to building cities, empires, and iPhones. It’s the story of why we trust, why we fight, why we innovate, and why we screw things up. Take something as simple as money. Today, we argue about inflation rates and crypto prices, but zoom out, and you see money’s deeper truth: From bartering goats to minting coins to swiping credit cards, it’s all about trust—trust that someone, somewhere, will accept your IOU. That trust didn’t pop up in the last 24 hours; it was forged through centuries of trial and error, wars, and collapses. It is trust in “the system” itself.
This system is one that we believe in at Howe & Rusling. Philosophically, we believe in the long-term compounding power of American business. Edwin Land, the founder of Polaroid, is credited with saying “Optimism is a moral duty.” We agree. Broadly speaking, our lives are better today than they were yesterday, but not as good as they will be tomorrow, because human progress compounds. Optimism often comes across sounding like a sales pitch, while pessimism masquerades itself as someone trying to help you. Since most people are generally optimistic, those who present a pessimistic view of the future are often assumed to possess special insights, which make them more believable or credible sounding. Pessimism and “doom and gloom” masquerade themselves as wisdom, when in reality the opposite is true. It takes guts to be an optimist. Progress compounds slowly and to such an extent that we often barely notice it. Setbacks can be sharp and terrifying (and are always highlighted and felt more), yet somehow, we usually rebuild, and the compounding of progress continues. It’s the 24-hour story versus the 6,000-year-old story.
On October 19,1987, the Dow Jones fell 22.6% in a single day. Investors were convinced the modern financial system was collapsing. Commentators wrote that capitalism had entered its final chapter. But fast-forward 35 years and that single day barely registers on a long-term stock chart—it looks like a speed bump. Those 24 hours felt apocalyptic; the next three decades revealed it as just another page in the recurring story of panic and recovery.
Here’s where it gets personal. Our obsession with the present doesn’t just mess with our understanding of the world; it interferes with our decisions. Think about investing. People panic when the market drops 2% in a day, but they fail to see that wealth usually grows when people solve problems—building better tools, better systems, better ways to cooperate. That’s why markets, over time, tend to go up. But the path is not a straight line and the setbacks are sharp and visceral. Humans are relentless at figuring stuff out. Knowing that changes how you invest, how you save, how you live. It gives you perspective, which is just another word for wisdom.
The flip side is what happens when you ignore history. You get sucker punched by the moment. Bubbles expand when people convince themselves that “this time is different,” ignoring historical patterns or trends that tend to repeat themselves in different forms. Young men ignore the experiences of their grandparents and march off to war every few decades. Even in our own lives, we repeat mistakes—relationships, careers, you name it—because we’re too busy reacting to what’s in front of us to learn from what’s behind us. History isn’t just a dusty book; it’s a map of human behavior. And human behavior doesn’t change much. Writer Kelly Hayes said, “Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history.”
I just finished a fascinating book called The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth. It is the personal diary of a young lawyer named Benjamin Roth in Youngstown, Ohio during the Great Depression. Penning brief, clear-eyed notes on the crisis which unfolded around him, Roth struggled to understand the complex forces governing political and economic life, yet he remained eager to learn from the crisis and document his daily life. What jumped out to me in his diary entries was how similar the 1930s were to previous big recessions. “I have done considerable reading about the depressions of 1837 and 1873,” he wrote, “and I am amazed at the similarity to conditions today.” People’s reactions to economic decline, politicians’ actions, and the greed and fear driving investment choices appeared strikingly similar. On Benjamin Roth, Morgan Housel writes, “This is some of the most valuable economic information you can get your hands on. Of course Roth knew nothing about today’s technology or the war in Ukraine or where the S&P 500 will trade in 2023. But he knew economies have a long history of panic and sudden collapse, driven by a similar pattern of optimism leading to debt and debt leading to crash. And the fact that he recognized it 90 years ago and it’s still relevant today makes it critical information to learn from, because you know it foretells our future. The important thing is that someone like Roth – who died in 1978 – may teach you more about our future than a living analyst who deeply understands the technical details of today’s economy.”
You don’t need a perfect forecast of tomorrow to make good decisions. You just need an appreciation of how humans have acted under similar pressures for millennia. Panic is normal. Overconfidence is normal. Resilience is normal. Recovery is normal. Ingenuity and invention are normal. Slow progress is normal. If you want to understand the shadow, study the light. The last 24 hours might feel like everything, but they’re nothing without the 6,000 years that came before. The last 24 hours shouts. The last 6,000 years whispers. If you listen carefully, history saves you from taking today too seriously.
This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment advice, nor does it constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or to adopt any investment strategy. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Statements about the future, including expectations of resilience, recovery, progress, or compounding, are not guarantees. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful or achieve its objectives. Past performance is not indicative of future results. References to historical market events (including the 1987 market crash, prior recessions, or historical recoveries) are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average are unmanaged, are not available for direct investment, and do not include the deduction of fees or expenses. This piece may reference third-party authors, books, or commentary (e.g., Will Durant, Kelly Hayes, Benjamin Roth, Morgan Housel). Such references are for illustrative and educational purposes only and do not constitute endorsements or imply accuracy with respect to current market conditions. Howe & Rusling, Inc. is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
