Is this time different?
Forty years ago, the famous American-British investor John Templeton wrote that the four most costly words in the annals of investing are “this time is different.” During the decades following its publication, the wisdom of Templeton’s observation has been proven repeatedly. As 2024 begins, a consensus belief among investors is that inflation is on a sure path back to 2%, the Fed is done hiking rates, and a recession will be avoided. Investors have this view despite many economic and financial indicators that have long and very strong predictive track records warning of an impending recession. So, will this time really be different?