January 19, 2024

Market Outlook Winter 2024

HOWE & RUSLING MACROECONOMIC COMMITTEE

As we start 2024, we make the following observations about what we believe are the most important uncertainties that will impact investments in 2024. (1) Will inflation continue to fall as expected towards the Fed’s 2% target? (2) Will there be a recession? (3) Will artificial intelligence adequately deliver on its promise in 2024?Notably, investors’ opinion on the first question is resoundingly “yes.” Investors’ opinion on the second question has shifted during the last several months and there is now a strong consensus opinion that the answer is “no.” Based on the performance of technology stocks in 2023 and high relative valuations, it seems clear that investors expect a lot from artificial intelligence in 2024. Read along as we explore these questions in more detail.

Is this time different?

Forty years ago, the famous American-British investor John Templeton wrote that the four most costly words in the annals of investing are “this time is different.” During the decades following its publication, the wisdom of Templeton’s observation has been proven repeatedly. As 2024 begins, a consensus belief among investors is that inflation is on a sure path back to 2%, the Fed is done hiking rates, and a recession will be avoided. Investors have this view despite many economic and financial indicators that have long and very strong predictive track records warning of an impending recession. So, will this time really be different?

Download our Winter 2024 Market Outlook