Stock Market

State of Banking

The State of Banking: How Concerned Should We Be?

Three banks have made headlines in recent days, Silvergate Bank and its holding company Silvergate Capital Corp (NYSE: SI), Signature Bank (Nasdaq: SBNY), and most notably Silicon Valley Bank and its holding company SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).  Silvergate Bank is a major bank of the cryptocurrency community and announced on March 8, 2023 that it would be winding down operations with plans to liquidate voluntarily.[1]  On Friday, March 10, 2023 California banking regulators announced that the FDIC would take over the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank holding company SVB Financial Group.[2]  On Sunday night, March 12, New York banking regulators announced that Signature Bank would be placed into receivership of the FDIC.[3]

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The Stockdale Paradox

The Stockdale Paradox

Admiral James Stockdale was the highest-ranking American taken prisoner during the Vietnam War after his A-4 Skyhawk fighter was shot down over North Vietnam. Stockdale ejected, breaking a bone in his back. Upon landing in a remote village, he badly dislocated his knee, which subsequently went untreated. Shortly thereafter, he was captured by North Vietnamese forces.

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Market Outlook Winter 2023

At the start of every calendar year, we see the major financial institutions providing their ‘outlook’ for the markets. Usually, the outlooks are hedged by not being too divergent from consensus, but nonetheless, they all must predict something, knowing that if their thesis comes true, they can lay claim to have made the right call.

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On Predictions… and Being Wrong

Happy New Year! The end of the year is all about reflection and the beginning of the year is all about looking forward.  With that spirit in mind, today is a good day to think about looking ahead and what that means in finance.

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Is the Market Telling Us the Worst is Behind Us?

Last Thursday was the largest single day gain (+5.54%) for the S&P 500 Index since 2020. The Nasdaq Composite (+7.35%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.69%) had similarly high-flying performance. So, what happened on Thursday, what should we take away from it, and what does that mean going forward?

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Fall 2022 Market Outlook

Market Outlook Fall 2022

Yet another Market Outlook with a thousand moving parts. Patience is paramount now as we wait for each part to find its spot in this machine we call an economy. Right now, inflation is the problem, and interest
rates are the wrench of choice. The challenge is how hard will the wrench have to be torqued to get the desired results? Will the lug nut break, requiring a modified approach? Perhaps. In the end, we believe patience will be rewarded, and the laws of economic theory will eventually play out.

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Fear

Fear, Greed, and the In-Between

“Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So, if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.” – Warren Buffett in the Fall of 2008

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Answering the tough questions, yellow telephone hanging on the wall

Answering the Tough Questions

When each of us became an investor, whether we realized it or not, we entered into a deal of sorts with the market. It wasn’t a contractual obligation per se; it was more like a handshake deal with a friend we’ve known for many, many years. We trusted that based on our friend the market’s past behavior (since the 1920s, if you’re referring to the chart below), we had no reason to believe our friend the market would not keep up its end of the deal: to deliver us a return on our investment over the long haul. But in order for the market to do so, we needed to uphold our end of the bargain which was to not throw in the towel early; to not give up on it, despite it weaving off course at times. The handshake deal we entered is just that: we will get a return on our investment if we don’t cut the deal short. When the going gets rough, we have two very important things to rely on: trust and history. And therefore, in order to be fit for investing in the market, we need to in fact be people who are willing to rely on both and, therefore, uphold our end of the deal.

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One Foot in Front of the Other

With another volatile week nearly behind us, I think it’s worth revisiting some words I penned at the beginning of this year about my time in the US Army’s Ranger School.

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Market Outlook Summer 2022

Market Outlook Summer 2022

Double, double whammy. After two years of endless concern from a once-a-lifetime pandemic (let’s hope), and the clouds just starting to part, barely, we get hit with an unruly market bent on testing our already fragile mindsets; Double Whammy #1.
If this isn’t enough, let’s toss in inflation exhibiting the endurance of a marathon runner, coupled with rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs to businesses and consumers with higher rates on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, home equity and improvement loans, and personal loans of all types. When you can’t buy a new home, or a car, because of limited supply, now you can’t afford them from a budget perspective. Double Whammy #2.

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